Neil Crumpton, a member of the Bath-based Claverton Energy Group of energy experts and practitioners, and also
Friends of the Earth Cymru’s energy campaigner, has
produced
a draft zero-carbon, non-nuclear scenario to 2050 and beyond intended
to initiate feedback and debate in the Claverton Energy Group. It aims
to identify the low-carbon energy generating and supply infrastructure
needed to build a resilient, demand-responsive UK energy system. It
relies heavily on renewables, urban heat grids, possibly suburban
hydrogen networks, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) during the four
decades of transition.
It is very ambitious. Renewables would supply about 200TWh/y by 2020,
scaling up to more than 1,100 TWh/y by 2050. Offshore windfarms, at
least 10 miles from any coast occupying some 20,000 sq. km, would
supply ~ 550 TWh/y, about half his estimated 2050 final energy demand.
But the real innovation
starts on the heat side, with much use of
Combined
Heat and Power plants and large heat pumps feeding industrial users and
town/ city heat grids. Up to 15 GWe of industrial Combined Heat and
Power (CHP) plants would supply industrial clusters, while 15 GWe or
more of urban Combined
Heat Pump
and Power (CHP&P) schemes (typically 0.5–100 MW) would distribute
reject heat from fast-response ‘aero-derivative’ gas turbines, and large
heat pumps .
They would feed heat grids, with up to 5 GWe of ‘initiator’ CHP&P
schemes, progressively linked up to form wider district and eventually
town-wide and city-wide heat grids over the next 15–20 years.
Large-scale heat pump installations would deliver renewable heat from
air and ground- and from solar thermal and geothermal sources.
Even more innovatively, large thermal stores (ac***ulators), up to
traditional gasometer-scale, would optimise the system. Peaking
renewable electricity, particularly from marine technologies, would
primarily be stored as heat at electricity ‘regenerator’ sites
comprising a mix of technologies like molten salt stores and 10 GWe or
more of steam turbines, electrolysers and hydrogen fuel
cells
and compressed air. Chemicals and fuel synthesis could also feature and
connection to the heat grids would greatly aid conversion and
regeneration efficiency and heat demand response.
Crumpton says ‘such an energy storage and electricity regeneration
capability would be a significant aid to delivering the UK’s large but
highly variable renewable energy resources, particularly wind energy,
to consumers as and when demanded’.
Initially the energy input for the heat grids would be mostly from gas,
but all the gas-fired industrial CHP and urban CHP&P capacity would
be progressively converted to hydrogen, piped in from coal and biomass
CCS gasifiers. There could also be a direct solar heat input to local
heat stores, and possibly also some from geothermal sources.
Low-pressure hydrogen might also be supplied to the 9.5 million
sub-urban
homes via the existing (upgraded) gas network to power 10–30 GWe of mCHP boilers (possibly fuel cell) and domestic
heat pumps.
All large emitters would be fitted with Carbon Capture by 2025. CCS
fitted gasifiers co-fired with 15+% biomass or imported solar synthetic
fuels would then
provide
‘carbon-negative’ baseload to the extent climate protection policy
required. The 10 GW of CCGTs already consented would operate until
about 2040, then be retained for occasional duty during prolonged
winter anti-cyclones.
There would also be HVDC links to Europe, including Norwegian hydro and
pumped storage schemes, which would help optimise the system to high
marine renewable variability, and open the option of delivering net
imports of around 10% of final energy from Saharan wind and
concentrated solar power schemes.
The complete system, with molten salt heat stores at regeneration sites, would comprise some 50 GW of firm electricity
generation,
plus peaking plant, suburban mCHP, and inter-connectors. He says the
system’s firm generation and storage capacity would be designed to
supply ‘smart’ demand even during a deep winter anti-cyclone lasting
days. And he says that ‘Depending on the availability of sustainable
bio-sources and transport sector emissions, the UK could be net zero
carbon by 2040’.
It is of course all very speculative, although the use of large
air to water heat pump
is not novel- The Hague has a 2.7 MW (ammonia) seawater community
heating scheme and Stockholm has a total of 420 MW (multiple 30 MW
units) of heat / cold pumps feeding its district heating / cooling
grid. Crumpton says ‘The large heat pumps would harness heat from
sources which 11 million urban domestic heat pumps could not do,
including large solar thermal arrays and geothermal’.
Using coal still might worry some environmentalists, but there would be
CCS and he says it would be used in minimal amounts by 2050. Generating
and piping hydrogen is also a novel idea – but there are now some pilot
schemes in the UK. And piping heat is much more common – on the
continent.
Installing that, and the rest of the system, would though involve a lot
of new infrastructure, but he claims that ‘strategic siting the
gasifiers would combine locations with good transport access for coal
and biomass (dock-sides, railheads, collieries), together with hydrogen
pipeline routes to CHP schemes, and CO2 pipelines to geological storage
sites under the North Sea or Liverpool Bay’. And similarly
‘regeneration schemes should be sited adjacent to industrial clusters,
refineries, and existing chemical sites with hydrogen, CO2 and heat
grid pipeline access’. In addition, ‘coastal locations with direct HVDC
connection from marine renewables would minimise need for new
cross-country transmission lines’.
So disruption would be reduced. Nevertheless, building the
Ceiling air conditioner
(polypropylene pipes) would involve some short-term local disruption to
pavements and roads during the pipe/conduit laying. But he says it
would ‘provide low-carbon energy infrastructure for the children of
today and future generations’.